The NH primary was a few nights ago, and it was crazy important. There are a lot of different outcomes it could have had, because the polls were all over the place on where the candidates stood. Almost all the polls had Trump leading by quite a lot, and my assumption that he had the win was correct.CNN's poll I found quite accurate when it came to the Iowa caucus, so I looked at it before the NH primary. Although, it seems that the poll by 7 news was the most accurate when it came to NH, CNN's poll was close. So I will keep looking at those polls while South Carolina polls come out.
New Hampshire is super liberal, and I think it was expected that Trump would do this well. New Hampshire's voting history displays their liberal values. In 2004, democratic front-runner John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points. In 2008, Barrack Obama defeated John McCain by over 10 points. Finally, in 2012 Barrack Obama conquered Mitt Romney in NH by 5 points. I believe Trump is the more liberal of the Republican candidates for a couple reasons. First, Trump still wants some form of Health Care, and second he is pretty shaky on the issue of abortion. I think this secures him as one of the more liberal Republicans.
Trump ran away with 35.3% of the votes, which was 19 1/2 points more than John Kasich, who arrived in second. I was not expecting Kasich to do so well, nationally Kasich has 4% of the vote which is not very promising, so I had not considered him as a possible front runner in NH. He is doing well in Ohio (the state that he governed), but other that New Hampshire and Ohio he is not doing well. Quinnipiac has Kasich leading Trump 10 points in Ohio, but one (two including NH) state isn't going to make him win an election.
I do want to talk about the three people who were fighting for third place. I was not expecting Cruz to do well in a state like NH. To my surprise, he came in third place ahead of Bush. Even though he got third above some others, he still received the same amount of delegates as Bush and Rubio. Trump now has a total of 17 delegates, followed by Cruz with 11, and Rubio with 10. Bush did surprisingly well in the race, arriving in 4th place just a few hundred votes behind Cruz. CNN reported that Bush had a goal to arrive ahead of Rubio (which he met), and that he hoped to end up in third. His near 4th place win earned himself a place in the South Carolina debate, but despite the improvement in NH, he still has an average of 4.3% nationally. Rubio did a lot worse than he hoped, arriving in 5th place, instead of the 2nd he was expected to gain. I don't think he will last much longer in the race, but that's just my opinion. The only chance I think Rubio has is if Bush drops out before him, allowing him to gain Bush's "Establishment Republican" votes. One of the factor's contributing to Rubio's loss, was the debate on Saturday. Governor Chris Christie proverbially destroyed him. This is the exchange between them:
Marco Rubio said that his downfall in NH was due to his poor performance in the debate. In his speech to NH he said that it was not the fault of the people of New Hampshire that he lost, and he took all the blame for his poor performance. Chris Christie's excellent skill in debating brought Marco Rubio down from his high place in the polls (before the debate his RCP average was over John Kasich's), but it did nothing for himself. Christie announced that he was suspending his campaign this morning due to loss in NH.
Trump definitely had the win in New Hampshire. Kasich got second, but in my opinion he won't continue much longer. Kasich just got a bunch of money from this, but the polls don't look good on his side. Is this the end of John Kasich's campaign? Is this the end of Jeb Bush and the rise of Marco Rubio? Or has Marco Rubio been eliminated by Chris Christie? Please comment below, I would love to hear your opinion.
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